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Durability of mRNA-1273 against COVID-19 in the time of Delta: Interim results from an observational cohort study

by Ana Florea, Lina S. Sy, Yi Luo, Lei Qian, Katia J. Bruxvoort, Bradley K. Ackerson, Gina S. Lee, Jennifer H. Ku, Julia E. Tubert, Yun Tian, Carla A. Talarico, Hung Fu Tseng


We conducted a prospective cohort study at Kaiser Permanente Southern California to study the vaccine effectiveness (VE) of mRNA-1273 over time and during the emergence of the Delta variant.


The cohort for this planned interim analysis consisted of individuals aged ≥18 years receiving 2 doses of mRNA-1273 through June 2021, matched 1:1 to randomly selected unvaccinated individuals by age, sex, and race/ethnicity, with follow-up through September 2021. Outcomes were SARS-CoV-2 infection, and COVID-19 hospitalization and hospital death. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) comparing outcomes in the vaccinated and unvaccinated groups. Adjusted VE (%) was calculated as (1-aHR)x100. HRs and VEs were also estimated for SARS-CoV-2 infection by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and during the Delta period (June-September 2021). VE against SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19 hospitalization was estimated at 0- Results

927,004 recipients of 2 doses of mRNA-1273 were matched to 927,004 unvaccinated individuals. VE (95% CI) was 82.8% (82.2–83.3%) against SARS-CoV-2 infection, 96.1% (95.5–96.6%) against COVID-19 hospitalization, and 97.2% (94.8–98.4%) against COVID-19 hospital death. VE against SARS-CoV-2 infection was similar by age, sex, and race/ethnicity, and was 86.5% (84.8–88.0%) during the Delta period. VE against SARS-CoV-2 infection decreased from 88.0% at 0- Conclusions

These interim results provide continued evidence for protection of 2 doses of mRNA-1273 against SARS-CoV-2 infection over 8 months post-vaccination and during the Delta period, and against COVID-19 hospitalization and hospital death.

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